Energy has become one of the most credibility-sensitive chapters in Montenegro’s EU accession process, not because of formal legislative alignment alone, but because electricity markets, grid governance and investment discipline are now treated by the European Union as real-economy stress tests rather than abstract compliance exercises. Montenegro’s recent regulatory reforms place the electricity sector at the centre of this credibility assessment.
The entry into force of the Law on Cross-Border Exchange of Electricity and Natural Gas in January 2026 represents a decisive shift from declarative alignment toward operational compatibility with the EU internal electricity market. The law directly transposes core EU market principles governing cross-zonal capacity allocation, congestion management, balancing responsibility, crisis coordination and non-discriminatory network access. From an accession perspective, this matters because it enables Montenegro to participate in market coupling mechanisms rather than remain a price-taker exposed to ad-hoc bilateral trading.
For the European Commission, electricity is no longer evaluated in isolation under a single negotiating chapter. It intersects with competition policy, state aid discipline, climate policy, security of supply and infrastructure resilience. Montenegro’s move away from feed-in tariffs toward competitive auction-based market premiums directly addresses long-standing EU concerns over hidden subsidies, fiscal leakage and distortion of wholesale price formation. The introduction of Contracts for Difference through competitive bidding aligns Montenegro with the dominant EU renewable-support model and materially strengthens its case under state-aid scrutiny.
The adoption of the National Energy and Climate Plan in December 2025 further consolidates accession credibility. The plan’s headline targets of at least 50 percent renewables in gross final energy consumption and a 55 percent reduction in greenhouse-gas emissions by 2030 are not exceptional by EU standards, but the credibility lies in the implementation logic. The NECP explicitly links renewable deployment to grid reinforcement, storage investment and cross-border interconnection, reflecting EU lessons learned from system stress in high-renewables markets.
From an institutional standpoint, Montenegro’s regulator and transmission system operator are now expected to demonstrate functional independence, transparent capacity allocation and predictable balancing rules. These are no longer theoretical benchmarks. They will be evaluated through actual market behaviour once Montenegro participates more deeply in regional coupling with Italy and neighbouring Western Balkan systems. Any deviation, discretionary intervention or politically motivated tariff distortion would immediately undermine accession credibility.
Energy therefore acts as a bellwether chapter. Successful integration of Montenegro’s electricity market into the European system would signal that the country can absorb complex acquis not just on paper, but in daily operational practice. Failure would expose weaknesses in regulatory capacity, institutional independence and fiscal discipline that extend far beyond the energy sector.
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